What should we expect now?

If he’s receiving good advice, expect Assad to flee, provided a credible offer of sanctuary has been made to him. If Assad is receiving bad advice, expect him to stay. If he tries to stay, he will recall the demise of the Gadaffi and Hussein regimes. That may prompt him to try to ‘gas’ his way to a ceasefire. Let’s be clear about this – the dreadful fact of the matter is that Assad’s gas is the only leverage he has left, something his Generals will be well aware of. Therefore we should expect them to isolate that ordinance.

I would be very surprised if there weren’t already a few senior army personnel talking to American negotiators behind the scenes, trying to win reprieves for themselves by offering up Assad. We are watching the endgame unfold. Assad is finished. It is now only a matter of time and circumstance. Let’s hope, for the sake of the people of Syria, that the end is quick and relatively peaceful. What I think you should not expect is a complete collapse of the regime. That would result in a fratricidal bloodbath, with supporters of the rebels taking revenge on defenseless supporters of Assad. That outcome must be avoided at all costs. I don’t believe the Whitehouse would have given Israel the go-ahead if it wasn’t already sure of the internal support of some of Assad’s Generals. To give the go-ahead without that support is to set in motion a tragic chain of events. Would the Whitehouse leave itself open to the charge of instigating – by indirect means – a massacre? I doubt it. But only time will tell.